季节性旅游的地方响应研究——以广交会展馆内外翻译为例

广交会是目前我国最大的综合性国际贸易盛会,每年都吸引了大量国内外客商到场参加。本文以广交会场馆内外的翻译工作者对广交会的响应情况作为研究重点,通过对广交会翻译的问卷调查及访谈,分析和研究广交会翻译对于广交会这一季节性旅游的地方响应。响应的人群主要为学生及社会工作者,其响应的方式可分为学校组织与个人自发响应。翻译工作者在广交会的这种季节性的旅游效应下不仅获得了学习和锻炼的机会,而且可以赚取更多的兼职收入,他们都对广交会的工作有较高的评价。     

曲面响应法预测砂浆性能的试验研究

本试验以砂浆性能为研究对象,采用Box-Behnken的中心组合实验设计及响应面分析方法对腻子粘结强度进行预测研究。试验选用三因素三水平的响应曲面分析法,建立了粘结强度的二次多项数学模型,并以粘结强度为响应值作响应面和等高线,考察了水粉比、灰粉比和胶粉比对粘结强度的影响,并根据实际选择响应曲面方程,利用最小二乘法估计相应的系数,剔除最不显著因素,建立最终的数学方程。结果表明:该预测模型能很好地描述粘结强度与水粉比、灰粉比和胶粉比之间的关系,可以对腻子粘结强度进行分析和预测,为砂浆性能研究提供一种新方法。     

Dual sourcing of a newsvendor with exponential utility of profit

Dual sourcing strategies supplement inflexible, low-cost country sourcing with quick response manufacturing. Due to short product life cycles, combined with uncertain demand, dual sourcing strategies are very common in several industries, in particular in the sporting goods or fashion industries.Even though scholars have given some attention to the analysis of dual sourcing strategies, the importance of the decision-maker’s risk preferences has not been covered yet.In this paper we analyse dual sourcing strategies using an extended single-product newsvendor model with two order points. Different risk preferences will be modelled using an exponential utility function. Within realistic parameter ranges, the optimal order quantities can only be numerically computed. The findings of this paper show that dual sourcing strategies are always preferable to an exclusive offshore approach, as long as the onshore ordering costs are smaller than the selling price of the considered product. The more risk-averse the decision-maker, the smaller the offshore order quantity will be.     

The response of U.S. natural gas futures and spot prices to storage change surprises: Fundamental information and the effect of escalating physical gas production

We study the behavior of U.S. natural gas futures and spot prices on and around the weekly announcements by the U.S. Energy Information Administration of the amount of natural gas in storage. We identify an inverse empirical relation between changes in futures prices and surprises in the change in natural gas in storage and that this relation is not driven by the absolute size of the surprise. The evidence also indicates prices react first in the futures market for natural gas with that information then flowing to the spot market. Post 2005, corresponding to a period of significant increases in the production of natural gas in the United States, the response of prices to storage surprises was larger in absolute value. No evidence is found of economically meaningful reactions to the surprise other than on the date the storage news is released. The results demonstrate the importance of fundamental information in the formation of natural gas prices.     

Alternative Approaches to Multilevel Modelling of Survey Non‐Contact and Refusal

We review three alternative approaches to modelling survey non‐contact and refusal: multinomial, sequential, and sample selection (bivariate probit) models. We then propose a multilevel extension of the sample selection model to allow for both interviewer effects and dependency between non‐contact and refusal rates at the household and interviewer level. All methods are applied and compared in an analysis of household non‐response in the United Kingdom, using a data set with unusually rich information on both respondents and non‐respondents from six major surveys. After controlling for household characteristics, there is little evidence of residual correlation between the unobserved characteristics affecting non‐contact and refusal propensities at either the household or the interviewer level. We also find that the estimated coefficients of the multinomial and sequential models are surprisingly similar, which further investigation via a simulation study suggests is due to non‐contact and refusal having largely different predictors.     

A contingent plan for disaster response

Natural and man-made disasters imply a great deal of uncertainty in terms of potential damage, though it is certain that there would be a huge spike in the demand for relief supplies causing shortages and/or delays in providing aid. Ruptures in the infrastructure (roads, utility, and communication lines) cause additional delays due to repairs. Therefore, the relief providers need to work in collaboration with retailers, and infrastructure service providers for improving responsiveness. The relief providers (government and non government) rely on acquiring and delivering supplies in real time because such actions accompany little risk of resource underutilization, though the cost of real time acquisitions can be high. In contrast, a proactive response, while minimizing acquisition cost, can be very ineffective if demand surges are high. We study a hybrid of reactive and proactive approaches, where the reactive response is contingent upon the disaster intensity exceeding a certain threshold. We show how the threshold value may impact capacity acquisitions and prices and establish the optimality of contingent response. Further, we establish how an infrastructure contract may help reducing the social cost of disaster.     

控制权转移的市场反应——基于私有收益视角

控制权转移可以引起公司股票价格以及股东财富的变化,国内外学者对此进行了大量研究,但鲜有结合控制权私有收益的分析。本文从私有收益视角出发,从事件期的累积超常收益、超常换手率、内幕交易指标、长期购买持有收益以及国有和民营买家超常收益的比较等方面进行了实证研究,结果表明:上市公司的控制权转移在很大程度上是新控股股东通过内幕交易获取私有收益的行为,并未真正为股东创造价值。     

Flexible estimation of price response functions using retail scanner data

Kalyanam and Shively [1998. Estimating irregular pricing effects: a stochastic spline regression approach. Journal of Marketing Research 35 (1), 16–29] and van Heerde et al. [2001. Semiparametric analysis to estimate the deal effect curve. Journal of Marketing Research 38 (2), 197–215] have demonstrated the usefulness of nonparametric regression to estimate pricing effects flexibly. The empirical results of these two studies, however, also revealed that nonparametric regression may suffer from too much flexibility leading to nonmonotonic shapes for price effects. In this paper, we show how the problem of nonmonotonicity can be dealt with without losing the power of flexible estimation techniques. We propose a semiparametric approach based on Bayesian P-splines with monotonicity constraints imposed on own- and cross-price effects. In an empirical application, we illustrate that flexible estimation of own- and cross-price effects can improve the predictive validity of a sales response model substantially, even when price response curves were constrained to show a monotonic shape, as suggested by economic theory. We also discuss the consequences from an unconstrained estimation of price effects.     

Service provider responses to anxious and angry customers: different challenges, different payoffs

Anxiety and anger, two frequently experienced emotions during service consumption, arise from different appraisals of the eliciting event, i.e., attribution to uncontrollable circumstances and low coping potential for anxiety versus attribution to providers and high coping potential for anger. These appraisal differences were hypothesized to impact the occurrence of supportive provider responses (higher for anxiety than for anger), and the value given to supportive responses by anxious versus angry customers (higher evaluation for anxiety than for anger). It was also hypothesized that, although evaluation of provider response would mediate the relationship between the intensity of both anger and anxiety and satisfaction with the service encounter as a whole, the power of this mediating effect would be stronger for anxiety than for anger. Hypotheses were confirmed in a survey of air travel passengers reporting episodes of anxiety and anger. Implications of these results for challenges and payoffs involved in the development of adaptive response strategies to anxious and angry customers are discussed.     

供应链企业之间信任问题研究

本文认为,信任在供应链管理中具有十分重要的作用,它是供应链的关键组织原则,是供应链企业相互合作的前提和基础,是保证供应链正常运转的支柱,可以提高整个供应链快速响应客户的能力。影响供应链企业间信任的因素多种多样,既有宏观因素,也有微观因素(如满足客户需求能力、信息沟通与共享程度及利益公平和程序公平的程度等)。企业要维护和提升供应链企业之间的信任,必须增强自身的核心竞争力,提高信息沟通与共享能力,进行经常性的沟通、交流,设计有效契约,并建立信任机制。